Rafał Trzaskowski, the candidate for the Tusk government, narrowly won the first round of the presidential election. His victory in the run-off is, however, uncertain.

There’s a long way to go yet in Poland’s presidential election — but Sunday’s first round was a good day for candidates on the right and far right and it flashed a big red warning signal for the moderate government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

T HE CHEERS at Rafal Trzaskowski’s election party on May 18th sounded unconvincing. So was his margin of victory. The liberal mayor of Warsaw came away with 31.4% of the vote in the first round of Poland’s presidential election,