The risk is that a hotter-than-expected June inflation report — one that Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently called among the most important for assessing the impact of tariffs — could slow the pace at which the central bank lowers interest rates. Importantly, that could also throw a wrench into the stock market’s record-setting rally.

Factory-gate prices held steady in June, surprising economists.

Economists are watching closely for any signs that his trade policy is beginning to hit consumers’ wallets.