AFTER saying for months that a trade deal with India was around the corner, US President Donald Trump imposed a 25 per cent tariff on its Indo-Pacific partner, and then doubled it in less than a week. The reason, he said, was that India was buying Russian oil, even though he left out China, which buys more Russian oil than us.

The crude oil market's rather sanguine reaction to the U.S. threats to India over its continued purchases of Russian oil is effectively a bet that very little will actually happen.

Trump suggested that Russia’s economic potential is being wasted due to global pressures and U.S. tariffs. “Their economy is not doing well right now because it’s been very well disturbed by this,” he said, singling out India’s purchases of Russian oil.